A Japan That Worries Beijing
On November 7, 2025, Sanae Takaichi stated that an attack on U.S. ships to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could force Japan to intervene militarily. This statement underscores Japan’s new emphasis on the concept of “situations threatening its survival” and reflects a shift toward a more assertive defense policy, with the goal of making Japan the world’s seventh-largest military power. Beijing views this development as a threat to the security framework it helped establish 80 years ago with the United States, asserting that peace is a shared responsibility. Do these statements herald a new alliance, or should they be viewed with caution, given the complex geopolitical context?
FACTS
On November 7, 2025, a statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could lead to a “situation threatening Japan’s survival” and force Tokyo to deploy its Self-Defense Forces sparked strong reactions from Beijing. China saw this as Japan challenging Taiwan’s status, as well as a consequence of the country’s remilitarization.
ISSUES
Concerned by Japan’s military activism and invoking the anti-fascist struggle waged alongside the United States 80 years ago, China hopes to be heard by Donald Trump. It is even considering cooperation with the United States in the interest of peace.
FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS
Sanae Takaichi also suggested that an attack on U.S. ships to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could force Tokyo to intervene militarily in self-defense.
In raising these scenarios, she did not deviate from Japanese law, but she failed to exercise caution. Until now, Japanese leaders had always avoided mentioning Taiwan when publicly discussing a threat to the region’s balance of power, maintaining a strategic ambiguity that was also favored by the United States, their primary security ally1.
Sanae Takaichi’s remarks, considered provocative, were perceived by China as an allusion to Taiwan’s status, a sensitive issue. For Takaichi, it was merely a matter of defining the scope of the concept of “situations threatening Japan’s survival,” initially limited to armed attacks endangering the country.
However, since the 2015 Peace and Security Act, this framework has been expanded to allow the Self-Defense Forces to intervene to protect a friendly nation in distress, even without a direct threat to Japanese territory.
Sanae Takaichi’s response to Hiroshi Ogushi, an opposition lawmaker who asked her to retract her remarks, reflects this interpretation. She asserts that she “made this statement in accordance with the government’s conventional position on the concept of situations threatening survival” and refuses to retract her statement. However, to signal her caution and distance her remarks from the Taiwan issue, she states that she will henceforth exercise greater caution before discussing such scenarios2.
In these statements, the only thing that mattered was the reference to “situations threatening survival.” Taiwan was cited merely as an example and did not warrant the vehement protests, warnings, and retaliatory measures that ensued. Moreover, is it worth dwelling on the Chinese sanctions, the most dramatic of which was halting Chinese tourist travel to Japan? These sanctions, which have little impact compared to bilateral economic trade of $292 billion in 2024 (representing 20% of Japan’s global trade), do not alter China’s status as Japan’s leading trading partner.
Asserting itself as the world’s seventh-largest military power
We must therefore return to what is essential for Sanae Takaichi, the new “Iron Lady” and admirer of Margaret Thatcher, who intends to fully realize the country’s defense and security policy. That is the message she conveyed upon her election.
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With the world’s seventh-largest defense budget (between that of France and the United Kingdom) and an arsenal covering all military domains, from sea to space, Japan can rely on the most powerful military forces in the Indo-Pacific region, with the exception of China. Previously reserved for the protection of national territory, these forces could now be deployed for distant objectives. Japan intends to further strengthen these powerful forces—with budgets set to rise sharply through fiscal year 2027 to exceed 2% of GDP and reach 3.5% thereafter3—and plans to expand their projection capabilities so they can fully demonstrate their potential.
It is this military buildup in Japan that can be attributed to the deployment of the Type 03 Chū-SAM surface-to-air missile at the Yonaguni military base (located approximately 110 km off the east coast of Taiwan), which has drawn the ire of Beijing.
Japan is also considering opening discussions on the sale of this same missile to the Philippines4. This marks a mini-revolution, given that until now, Japan had virtually prohibited all arms sales. Currently the world’s 38th-largest exporter, its arms sales represent less than 0.05% of France’s sales.
Are the United States and China Growing Closer Again?
Japan, in the process of remilitarizing, is perceived by China as a threat to the zone of peace it helped establish 80 years ago with the United States.
A Reuters dispatch from November 27, citing various official Chinese sources, notably People’s Daily, reports that China is calling on the United States to rein in Japan to prevent any “action aimed at reviving militarism.” It notes that, as major contributors to the victory in World War II and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and the United States have a responsibility to preserve the postwar international order by firmly opposing any attempt to revive militarism or undermine regional stability and world peace, and calls on these two countries to work together to safeguard the victory of World War II5.
According to People’s Daily, “President Trump acknowledged the important role played by China in the victory of World War II and expressed his understanding of the importance of the Taiwan issue to China”6. The interpretation of this statement is uncertain, as it may reflect a biased perception or a loose interpretation of the conversation between the two presidents. It will take time to confirm Trump’s actual position, as he remains capable of surprises.
According to two Japanese government sources cited by Reuters, following this exchange, Donald Trump reportedly asked Sanae Takaichi to avoid any further escalation with China.
Edouard Valensi, Asie21
(1) Explainer: Why did Japan PM's Taiwan remarks cause such a stir?, Reuters, 11/11/2025
(2) Takaichi Declines to Withdraw Remark over Taiwan Contingency, Nippon.com, 10/11/2025
(3) Japan’s New Prime Minister Galvanizes Defense and Security, Global Security Review, 12/02/2025
(4) China bristles as Japan weighs missile export to Philippines, South China Morning Post, 12/02/2025
(5) China's top paper urges US to rein in Japan over Taiwan , Reuters, 11/27/2025
(6) Observer: China, US must jointly defend hard-won victories of WWII, Zhong Sheng, 11/28/2025
