China on its way

The National Plan of Economic and Social Development 2025 gives us a glimpse of a China that is changing and that we do not know. A completely new direction is given to the nation's development policy: the emphasis is no longer on industry and science, the country's driving forces, but on household consumption. The focus was on setting up a complete system of domestic demand, and making it the pillar of economic growth. Another upheaval is that planning the future of the rural world is no longer on the agenda. Instead, at the emphasis is on promoting integrated urban-rural development. Can we believe that the miserable rural societies that have formed the bedrock of Chinese society for millennia are no longer? One thing is certain: this plan deserves a very close look.

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FACTS

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Published in March 2025, the “Report on the Implementation of the 2024 National Economic and Social Development Plan” and the “Draft 2025 National Economic and Social Development Plan1” did not attract any more attention from the US and Western press than previous reports, despite the publication of an English translation2 . Yet these important documents provide year after year a glimpse of the real China. A China that is constantly changing, as shown by the analysis of the latest report.

ISSUES

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If the openness towards people suggested by the 2025 report is confirmed, then in a few years' time a profoundly transformed China could finally place value on people and individuals.

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FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS

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In 2025, as in previous years, the report on China's economic and social development plan
went unnoticed in the West. Yet it is an authoritative reference document in China and, for experts willing to read it, a valuable document that provides insight into the persistent weaknesses of China's heartland and the policies the Party has adopted to overcome them and build the China of tomorrow.

A glance at the chapter headings and subheadings is enough to reveal its complexity. But that is not the point. Like all annual plans, which are largely repetitive, what matters are the changes observed that reveal what needs to be focused on for the current year.

A whole new direction has been given to the nation's development policy. In 2024, the focus was on science and industry to ensure the emergence of an ever stronger China. The aim was to “use scientific and technological innovation to drive the modernization of the industrial system and accelerate the development of new forces.” Another major objective was set: “To eradicate rural areas that remain excluded from today's China.” Social and health programs were at the bottom of the list, as the individual was still not taken into consideration in China.
The new plan adopted other guidelines, as if the transition to a new year coincided with the arrival of a new government. The changes will be highlighted in the following lines, which, perhaps arbitrarily, will ignore objectives that have not changed significantly in 2025.

As in the previous year, the government is counting on 5% growth in GNP, an environmentally friendly increase. But for the current year, the priority of the plan as a whole has changed. The focus is no longer on industry and science, but on household consumption.
More funds and resources will be devoted to improving public welfare as part of a consumer-centered approach. " We will accelerate efforts to foster a complete system of domestic demand and make domestic demand the main engine and anchor of economic growth” This aims to actively stimulate consumption, increase the profitability of investments, and boost domestic demand in all sectors.
Another change of direction, albeit less significant, concerns the construction of a unified national market, which remains to be completed. In 2025, the focus will be on private entrepreneurship. “We will make every effort to remove institutional obstacles in order to spur the internal driving forces and innovation vitality of our society”, notably through tax reform and removing taxes on businesses. What is striking is that there is no longer any mention of financial system reform, which may suggest that a major structural milestone has been reached.

The last objective, devoted to rural areas, would be worth a long discussion;. The emphasis is on comprehensive rural revitalization and “the promotion of integrated urban-rural development.” The Party's objective for ensuring rural development is now to facilitate urban-rural integration and governance at all levels. Coordinated local efforts will be encouraged to develop businesses, strengthen counties, and increase the income of the population in accordance with specific local conditions. Will the impoverished rural societies that have formed the backbone of Chinese society for thousands of years now disappear?

What remains is a source of astonishment for us Westerners is the little or no importance given to health, families, and solidarity. Even if the 2025 plan has become somewhat more humanized, individuals and people are still ignored. When Chinese people are old, weak, or sick, who, apart from their families, will take care of them, since the central government does not seem to know them? One answer can be put forward: it would be the provinces that would be delegated or that would take charge (politics abhors a vacuum) of matters relating to individuals.
With this possibility in mind, it is important to read carefully the paragraphs of the plan relating to the “interconnected and integrated” development of the regions. They are analyzed individually in their uniqueness, without any attempt at standardization. To the point where one can imagine, but this is only a hypothesis, that China could be on the way to gradually structuring itself into a federal state, similar to the United States, with all proportions maintained and all unique characteristics preserved. One can even imagine that the centenary of the People's Republic of China could be an opportunity to announce at least the principle.

Edouard Valensi, Asie21

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