India and Pakistan under nuclear umbrella
Translated from La dissuasion nucléaire : Manuel d’emploi, L'Harmattan éditeur
Nuclear powers, hostile to each other, at war three times, India and Pakistan were condemned to threaten each other with nuclear strikes. This was indeed the case, and nuclear weapons were brandished on the subcontinent twice, in 1990 and 2002. Here's what happened and how, thanks to the intervention of the United States, the two countries were able to make the wise choice.
1990 Pakistan goes nuclear
The first time was in 1990, when Indian troops intervened in a crisis in Kashmir. Pakistan, in jeopardy, put itself in a position to block Indian aggression with the atom.
Pakistan is said to have secretly put its nuclear forces on alert, with military authority authorizing the assembly of the devices. At least one bomb was assembled and an F-16, presumably armed, put on alert.
The risk of nuclear war was so keenly felt by the American President that he dispatched a high-level delegation to the leaders of the two governments to prevent the irreparable. The delegation's conclusions were disturbing: The U.S. delegation found both sides worried about the prospects of war, but who didn't seem much concerned about the risk of nuclear conflict. The United States surprised the Indian General Staff by revealing Pakistan's rising nuclear power, which it had not perceived.
American intervention bears fruit. India and Pakistan return to normal levels of tension.
Both sides are finally aware of the consequences of a nuclear escalation and are frightened of it. The Indian General Staff, convinced that Pakistan would not hesitate to launch a nuclear strike if its troops collapsed, stopped thinking about launching
A terrorist attack and the nuclear threat is raised again in 2002
At the root of the tensions was a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament which killed 14 people; a major terrorist action which, in India's view, was carried out by Kashmiri militants backed by Pakistan. It was a minor incident compared to an atomic conflagration, but a serious military crisis ensued. It saw the deployment of 700,000 Indians and 300,000 Pakistanis on either side of the border. Both countries positioned short-range missiles close to the front line, capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
The Indian General Staff, having reiterated that India would not initiate a first strike, was playing with fire, but with a pinch of salt
- Pakistan's Nuclear Deterrence: Political And Strategic Dimensions , http://sam.gov.tr/perceptions/Volume7/Dec2002-Feb2003/PerceptionVolumeVII3AZHilali.pdf , Base\Pakistan's Nuclear Deterrence_Dimensions.pdf
- Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program Development , http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/PakDevelop.html , Base\Pakistan's_Nuclear_Weapons_Program_Development.pdf
The Indian General Staff, having reiterated that India would not initiate a first strike, was playing with fire, but with a pinch of salt
- An Indian official said that expert military planners were convinced that war between the two nations could be limited to a short, non-nuclear struggle. "We will not resort to nuclear weapons," he said. "And we are not planning to attack [Pakistan] in a way that would lead them to use their nuclear weapons.". They believe that the Indian Commander believes that selective strikes close to the border could trigger a strong response from Pakistan, but without going as far as a nuclear salvo. Adds one expert, "India's approach is to guard against threatening Pakistan's core interests, so that it is not induced to launch their nuclear weapons.
- On the Pakistani side, President Pervez Musharraf adopts Ali Bhutto's formula: "Nuclear weapons are the last resort. I am optimistic and confident: we can defend ourselves with conventional means, even if the Indians, in a megalomaniac delirium, buy the most modern weapons. "Nuclear weapons could be used, should Pakistan be threatened with extinction, then the pressure from our countrymen will be such that this option will have to be considered." He added: "In the event of a crisis, we will have to include nuclear weapons in our calculations." .
It's a message that President Pervez Musharraf is taking care to convey to Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee through multiple channels. "In meetings I have had with various world leaders, I have conveyed a personal message to Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee: once Indian forces cross the Line of Control and the international border, they can no longer expect a conventional war."
War has become impossible. Skirmishes and artillery fire follow one another. Preparations were made for a decisive attack, but no orders were given. Time played its part, steps were taken on both sides and in 2003 a ceasefire was signed between the two countries.
The peace-making atom has won.
Edouard D Valensi
edouard.d.valensi@gmail.com
