China - United States : A new bone of contention
From China's perspective, the new US disarmament strategy presented on June 2, 2023, by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan denounces the substantial expansion of China's nuclear capabilities as justification for overhauling US deterrent forces and further strengthening the nuclear superpower's arsenal. Furthermore, the summons served on Beijing to participate in the new START negotiations, a necessary condition for the United States to disarm, is a ploy that allows the Pentagon to retain its triad, while blaming China for the status quo.
FACTS
On June 2, 2023, Jacke Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, presented the new US disarmament strategy at the annual meeting of The Arms Control Association. In his speech, he urged China to come to the negotiating table, as Beijing holds the key to disarmament.
ISSUES
No issues, disarmament is postponed indefinitely.
FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS
It was with great solemnity that Jacke Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, presented the world with the content of the US policy on nuclear disarmament. “A new two-pronged strategy to prevent an arms race, reduce the risk of escalation and, above all, ensure the safety and security of the American people and people around the world in the face of nuclear threats”.
The complete modernization of the components of the nuclear triad: ICBMs, ballistic missile submarine launchers and bombers, as well as the nuclear IC3 architecture. Better, but no more. The United States does not need to increase its nuclear forces to overtake and deter its competitors. This way, it can be assured of its forces.
The opening, without preconditions, of bilateral talks with Russia and China on disarmament and risk reduction. Without conditions, but not without control, with a commitment to accountability. Our adversaries and competitors will have to respect the signed agreements1.
The content of the agreement, and what the United States will be able to accept, will obviously depend on the scale of China's ongoing nuclear program, which finds itself at the center of the nuclear game. Any future US commitment to nuclear disarmament will depend on China. “We would be open to a disarmament regime after 2026, but a key variable will be the nature of our relations with China between now and then [...] We hope that during diplomatic discussions (understand in the context of the negotiation of a new START treaty), Beijing will be willing to commit substantially to strategic issues, which would be beneficial for the security of our two countries and for that of the whole world.2
For Washington, much remains to be done. For years, the PRC has refused to sit down at the negotiating table to engage in substantive dialogue on arms control. It refuses to disclose the size and scope of its nuclear forces, to provide launch notifications. But even worse, a study has shown that by 2035, the PRC will be on track to possess up to 1,500 nuclear warheads, which will represent one of the most significant peacetime nuclear build-ups in history. When will there be transparency and forces open to inspections?
According to American columnists, it won't be anytime soon. China has never been part of a nuclear weapons agreement and has shown no sign of wanting to reduce its weapons programs. How could it be otherwise? And how could Beijing agree to open negotiations when, with the speech of the security advisor, the White House is ignoring everything, or rather wants to ignore everything, about nuclear China.
As Ambassador Li Song, China's representative on the UN Disarmament Committee, has stated, negotiations between two or three parties are not desirable. “It is necessary to firmly maintain and make full use of existing multilateral mechanisms. Minimizing the role of the Conference on Disarmament, undermining the principle of consensus, or even trying to create other forums outside the current body and imposing certain rules on certain countries will inevitably lead to the division of camps, the fragmentation of security governance, and the regression of the international order to the law of the jungle3.” No Start, then.
And what might be China's reaction to the White House's announcement of the deployment of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035? It is quite simply inept. Such a program, with all the industrial constraints and time required to move from initial design to operational deployment, would imply that a nuclear doctrine unchanged for fifty years has been surreptitiously abandoned. This is not the case. Before the Disarmament Commission in 2023, China reiterated that it is “firmly committed to a defensive nuclear strategy and is the only nuclear-armed state to pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons. It has always maintained its nuclear capabilities at the minimum and reliable level required for national security, and has never competed with other countries in terms of investment in nuclear weapons, either in quantity or scale.
For Beijing, returning to the two components of the US nuclear strategy, recalled at the beginning of the article:
- the clamor denouncing the “substantial expansion” of China's nuclear capabilities is just a pretext for further strengthening the arsenal of the nuclear superpower;
- the summons to meet Washington's demands, under penalty of renouncing disarmament, is a ploy that allows the Pentagon to keep its triad, while blaming China.
The international community and Europe, as passive witnesses, will see that disarmament is becoming a new source of confrontation between the United States and China, which already had no shortage of them.
Edouard Valensi, Asie21
Edouard.d.valensi@gmail.com
(1) Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for the Arms Control Association ; White House ; 02/06/2023
(2) Tout engagement américain en faveur du désarmement nucléaire à l’avenir dépendra de la Chine. Le Figaro 02/06/2023
(3) Remarks by H.E. Amb. LI Song at the First Plenary Meeting of the 2023 Conference on Disarmamen ; 25/01/2023
